Dallas-Area Home Price Still Racing Up
9.8% Increase in January; Economists Predicted 3-4% Increase for DFW
Dallas-area home prices rose by almost 9.8 percent in January, continuing to grow faster than nationwide rates. The analysts had predicted the DFW area would slow to a 3% to 4% increase in 2016, but are now revising – there is simply too many jobs coming to North Texas. Analysts expect that North Texas’ near double-digit home price gains will continue as long as employment growth in the area remains strong. CoreLogic said Tuesday that U.S. home prices were 6.9 percent higher in January than they were at the start of 2015. “Heading into the spring buying season, home prices continue to rise across much of the country,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “With rates staying low for now and continued solid job and income growth, the spring buying season is shaping up to be a good one.” CoreLogic is forecasting that nationwide home prices will rise by 5.5 percent in the year ahead.
– Dallas Morning News, March 1, 2016 (excerpt of article)
Castle Hills Developer Has Bought Singer Ranch; Negotiating with Clem Ranch.
Will Be Larger Than Valley Ranch
About 3,400 houses have been completed in the Castle Hills community. Another 1,500 lots are in development. Now Chris bright has announced the purchase of the Singer Ranch (Old Denton Rd, just south of Windhaven) and negotiations underway for the Clem Ranch (Josey at Parker Rd)
Bright Realty just acquired the next door Singer Ranch, a more than 100-acre property on Old Denton Road. The former horse boarding and riding facility is surrounded to the east on three sides by Castle Hills. Bright Realty CEO Chris Bright said the purchase will give Castle Hills land for more than 300 additional homebuilding sites. “We moved fast to buy it,” Bright said. “We knew the way things are working right now in single-family home development that it would sell fast. Bright Realty is already working with the City of Carrollton to plan and zone the property – much of which is located in a floodplain and is wooded creek area.
Bright said he’s working with the Clem family, which owns about 140 acres north of Castle Hills to expand the project further. “That family has owned that property since 1860,” he said. “We are doing a joint venture with them that will give us another 400 to 500 lots north of Parker Road.”
More than 12,000 people now live in Castle Hills. In addition to the custom home communities, Bright Realty is building shopping apartments and an office park to complement the residential neighborhoods.
– Dallas Morning News, March 2, 2016 (excerpts)
No Dallas Bubble Most Housing Analysts Say in New Poll
North Texas were up 11 percent on 2015. With a year of double-digit home price gains, concerns about housing costs in North Texas are growing. Most housing experts polled for the study by Zillow said Dallas has no significant risk of a housing bubble in the next five years. The rest said Dallas is either already in a bubble or will be in the next few years. That is a better forecast than almost any other major city. “It is very clear that nationally we are not seeing a return of the conditions that caused the last national bubble,” Gudell said. “Tighter lending restrictions today mean we aren’t seeing buyers get loans they realistically can’t pay back, like we did in years past. “It’s significant that some experts are starting to worry about bubble conditions, but in my opinion, there’s no real danger of a severe crash like the one we all remember from the last decade.” But continued employment gains and population increases will keep housing demands strong in Dallas. Some 20 of the analysts saw no risk for Dallas in for more than five years.
– Dallas Morning News, December 9, 2016 (excerpts)
This time is different, and not by accident. Oil prices have fallen by more than half since last summer, prompting cuts in energy jobs and rig counts. That is stoking fears of a deep downturn in the state’s economy. But Texas is less vulnerable to the kind of oil shock that derailed the state in the 1980s, and that’s by design. Almost 30 years ago, when the oil industry collapse put the state in a fiscal crisis, political and business leaders set out to diversify the economy and its tax base. They launched economic development programs and recruited a wide range of employers, an aggressive approach that’s been refined and copied elsewhere. They expanded the sales tax base to more products and business services. Licenses, fees and the lottery became more important contributors. A rainy day fund was created to siphon off future gains from oil and gas and provide a safety net for the next emergency. Now, the fund has $8.5 billion, and the comptroller projects it will grow to $11 billion in two years. All these initiatives helped diversify the Texas economy and make it less dependent on oil. In 1982, taxes on oil and gas production accounted for almost 18 percent of state revenue. Last year, the share was 5.5 percent. Last week, the comptroller projected 3 percent growth for 2015. That’s down from a 3.7 percent gain in real gross state product last year. He cited the decline in oil prices and possibility of a slowdown in global growth. While the energy business is under pressure, other sectors are growing fast. Local governments, which lost workers for almost two years, have been adding teachers, cops and firefighters at a rapid clip. If he’s right, the state economy will roll on, even as the oil and gas industry pulls back. Decades ago, that’s exactly how Texas leaders envisioned it.
– Dallas Morning News, January 19, 2015
Oil Patch Declines Won’t Stifle U.S. Housing Markets, Analysts Forecast
Top housing economists don’t think an Oil Patch slowdown will result in a weaker national housing market. Nationwide starts of single-family homes are expected to jump by 26 percent, according to the latest forecast from the National Association of Home Builders. Dave Crowe, a top economist, thinks the positive impact of lower energy costs will far outweigh any negatives that the drop in oil prices brings. And even in Texas, the housing analysts predict that any cutbacks from the oil sector shakeout will be concentrated in specific markets. “If the decline in energy values remains for a sustained period of time it will have effects on the Texas economy — not throughout Texas but in parts of Texas,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist with mortgage giant Freddie Mac. “When you have a drop in energy price that’s sustained, it has the same beneficial impact as a tax cut would,” Nothaft said. “Your average person sees more cash in their pocket at the end of the day.” He is forecasting that overall home sales across the country will rise about 4 percent in 2015. “That will be the best year for home sales since 2007 — the best in eight years,” Nothaft said. “We are expecting home prices to continue to rise in 2015 maybe a nudge lower — 3.5 to 4 percent.” Crowe said a stronger overall economy, more employment gains and an easing of mortgage requirements in 2015 will give the housing recovery more lift.
– Dallas Morning News, January 20, 2015
Texas Added More Residents Than Any Other State
Texas was the third-fastest growing state in the nation over the past year as a percentage but it added more people than any other, according to new state-level population data released by the U.S. Census Bureau Tuesday. Texas grew by 1.7 percent from July 2013 to July 2014, behind Nevada, which grew by 1.71 percent and North Dakota, whose oilfield boom fueled a 2.16 percent growth in its population. Texas remains the No. 2 most-populous state overall, with a population of 26.9 million. That’s behind California’s 38.8 million-strong population but ahead of Florida’s 19.8 million population. Florida surpassed New York to become the 3rd-most-populous state in America. However, Texas did have the largest numeric increase in its population, which rose by 451,321 overall, ahead of California, which added 371,107 new residents last year.
– Austin Business Journal, December 23, 2015